Californian Almonds Crop Forecast - Crop Estimate Down around 10-15%!!

According to reports out of California, the new harvest is down 10-15%, thus we expect packers and merchants to raise prices significantly as a result of this news. California's almond crop is expected to total 2.80 billion meat pounds in 2021, down 13% from May's subjective projection of 3.2 billion and 10% less than last year's record crop of 3.12 billion meat pounds.

The objective crop estimate has been released at 2.8 billion pounds... (down from the subjective estimate) and well below this year's actual export volume!

On 1.33 million bearing acres, the average yield for the 2021 crop is expected to be 2,105 pounds per acre. This is down little more than 15% from the 2,490 pounds per acre average yield per acre on 1.25 million bearing acres in 2020.

Nonpareil production is expected to reach 1.10 billion pounds, accounting for nearly 39% of total almond production in California. Nonpareil production is down 15% (200 million pounds) from last year's 1.30 billion pounds.

The average number of nuts produced per tree is 4,619. This is down 18% from the crop in 2020. The Nonpareil variety's average nut set is 4,512, which is down 20% from previous year.

The Central region had the greatest average nut set per tree at 5,456, followed by the Southern region at 4,216, and the Northern region at 3,906.

All of the types tested had an average kernel weight of 1.46 grams. This is a 3% decrease from the previous year. The average kernel weight for the Nonpareil crop was 1.51 grams, down 6% from the 2020 harvest.

Comparison of the Subjective Estimate, Objective Estimate and Final Crop receipts since the 2000/2001 season

KEY FACTS

• The prediction is based on 1.33 million acres of bearing land. The Nonpareil type is expected to produce 1.10 billion meat pounds, down 15% from last year's deliveries of 1.30 billion meat pounds.
• The Nonpareil cultivar accounts for 39% of all almond production in California.
• The 2021 almond harvest got off to a great start in February with very dry weather, which allowed for exceptional bloom conditions and ample of pollination opportunities.
• The paucity of rain continued into the spring, causing anxiety about water supplies. When there is a water deficit, there will often be less kernels, but those that do grow will be larger; however, this is not the case this year with this crop; the kernels are smaller rather than larger.
• The crop did not develop as well as predicted due to insufficient water allocations and record high temperatures in June.
• In comparison to 2020, the average nut set per tree is 4,619, a reduction of 18%. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,512 is down 20% from the previous year.
• The average kernel weight for all kinds tested was 1.46 grams, down 3% from the average weight in 2020.
• The average kernel weight of Nonpareil was 1.51, down 6% from the previous year.

Read the full report here: 2021 crop estimate objective