Californian Almonds – October Shipping Report

Weather – Nearly half of all Californian residents are under a regional drought emergency. The metropolitan water district of Southern California, a supplier to almost 20million people declared a state emergency this week. The Californian Government has requested residents cut their water usage by 15%, however only 5% have managed this. This leads us to understand the sheer effect the drought is having in California, and so resulting in a much lower crop yield.

Demand this week – India continues to be the main player in procurement of inshell almonds, however their logistical issues are aiding the local market. Carmel type have again been dragged down by the STD pressure and has been the preferred sell with STD 5% bids coming in below the $2.00 mark, ahead of the position report.

All NP have been under high pressure with a vast range of pricing in the market. The pressure on 27/30 AOS will continue, as there is once again a much larger supply than originally anticipated. Pre-position report offers have dipped below $2.00 FAS. At these price levels we expect that the European market will come back with strength.

Shipping figures – The Almond board of California released the October position report, detailing shipments of 217million pounds, representing a decrease of 30% compared to the same time last year, at a figure of 309.7million.

1. Year to date shipments are down 14%
2. Commitments are down 17%
3. Each market had a decrease in comparison to last year
4. India was down year to year which will before news to the local market, which was very much expected.
5. This number was very much expected, as a result of poor commitments and sales in comparison to last year.
6. Price has been moving down ahead of the number and it is likely we will see further price weakness on the back of these numbers.
7. Net new sales were 244million pounds compared to 249million last year.
8. We are in very early stages to make any real observations about the size of the crop but we can assume that we are looking at a crop close to 3billion pounds.

Export Summary –

Up:

• Japan – 3% at 6.72 million pound, up 15% for the year
• Algeria – 547% at 570K pound – up 332% for the year

Down:

• Western Europe – 48.44% at 34.1 million pound – down 23% for the year
• India – 30.7% at 29.2million pound – down 17% for the year
• Middle East – 30.4% at 23.3million pound
• China – 14% at 32.1million pound – down 3% for the year