Californian Raisins Carry out estimates down sent to us by Fresh Pacific...
Exports are trending down at 21% and overall the sales are down 11%. With the reduced crop size the July 31, 2015 carryout should be about 100,000 tons. This carry out is about 23% less than last year which will give a good balance start to the 2015 crop.
Packers appear to be more inclined to maintain the same grower price as last and very dedicated to firming up their selling prices. The 2015 crop does appear to have more mildew and mold problems created by the high humidity and light rains that occurred in May. Not enough rain to put a dent in the drought but enough to be a nuisance for growers. We are recommending to several of our suppliers to continue purchasing 2014 crop for it may be a better quality overall than the early 2015 crop. The 2015 crop is still being projected to be over 300,000 tons. The wineries have advised growers that they have no interest in raisin varietal grapes from the approaching crop. This will put more acreage devoted to raisin production and offset the impact of the pullouts that were executed this year.
You will see in the report that there is a significant amount “Other Seedless” that will be carried into the 2015 crop year. We do expect to see some good pricing for this type of raisins. Possible price levels could be well below $1.00 for this type of raisins.
|RAISIN INDUSTRY POSITION REPORT|
|Month: April 2013/14 and 2014/2015|
|Packer Inventory 1||August||132,407||138,215||1,576||1,341||4,917||7,116||2,353||1,858||4,107||5786|
|USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors||16-May||345,684||298,017||5,050||3,907||21,228||19,034||2,651||3,069||10,045||13793|
|USDA Certified Deliveries to Processors July 31||19,109||tba||-125||tba||174||tba||234||tba||424||tba|
|Total Available Inventory||497,200||436,232||6,501||5,248||26,319||26,150||5,238||4,927||14,576||19579|
|Sales through May 31||31-May||-285,868||-255,166||-2,258||-1,854||-14,883||-16,420||-2,493||-2,058||-7,399||(7683)|
|Total Available Inventory May 31||31-May||194,180||165,756||4,108||3,283||10,543||8,745||2,246||2,457||6,733||11,435|
|Additional Sales through July 31||31-Jul||-59,718||tba||-1,297||-2,746||tba||-380||-1,004||tba|
|Total Available Inventory July 31||31-Jul||130,879||tba||2,733||tba||7,632||tba||1,790||tba||5,669||tba|