Californian Walnuts – Market Report – Oct 2021
Weather/Harvest – The Chandler harvest started with very good conditions throughout the state, with increased edible yields and light percentage in all regions. On the 24th of October, northern areas of the state saw the largest storm in the last 100 years reaching around 5.5 inches of rain in areas. This storm occurred with approximately 30% of the Chandler Crop still on trees, and with winds of 50mph, resulted in much of the potential harvest being lost to the earth.
As a result of this storm, much of the late harvest Chandler crop has stained or damaged shells/kernels. The late Chandler harvest must now be cracked and processed accordingly. On a more positive note, over two thirds of the crop was already harvested when the storm came.
Market/Pricing – Suppliers have pointed to shipping issues across the industry, which won’t be much of a surprise to some. A lack of vessels and containers may well be to blame, however USA shipments were also down 10%.
Pricing has seen a substantial jump given the low availability across the industry as a whole, resulting in a much smaller demand. Prices have now lowered to well below their August levels, with the inability to ship, demand has been slow to respond.
Procurers should note that because of the storm, there will be a less premium inshell available than previously estimated. Inshell prices will reflect the limited supply, with sellers unwilling to accept lower offers. We recommend acting as quickly as possible, as we estimate that there may not be much stock past December time.
Some key information:
- October shipments: The October 2021 Walnut shipments were +73,962 tons in 2021 versus 103,816 tons in September 2020 on an inshell equivalent for an decrease of -28.75 percent
- Season to date shipments: The industry has shipped a total 107,750 tons for 2021 crop, compared to 132,810 tons at this point for 2020 crop. This is a decrease of -18.89%.
- Crop: Receipts recorded as of October 31, 2021 are +564,714 tons. The NASS estimate for the 2021 walnut crop is 680,000 tons.
- Domestic/USA: October 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -11.46%
- Export: October 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -35.33%
Key Markets – October 2021 vs October 2020
- Turkey: 13.8 million inshell lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 25.98 shipped in 2020, decrease of -46.89%
- UAE: 2.51 million inshell lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 11.15 shipped in 2020, decrease of -77.5%
- Japan: 2.76 million kernel lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 960,147in 2020, increase of 187.39%
- Middle East/Africa: 17.15 million inshell shipped in 2021 versus 45.18 million in 2020, decrease of -62.04%
- Europe: 11.96 million kernel lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 13.42 in 2020, decrease of -10.86%