Californian Walnuts, Market Report September 2022
2022/23 Walnut Supply (inshell tons)
Carry-in from prior season: 137,969
2021 Crop Receipts: 720,000
Total available for shipment: 857,969
Less: Shipments to date thru Sep 30: 36,257
Remaining unshipped supply: 821,712
Less: Commitments as of Sep 30: 147,023
Remaining supply available for sale: 674,689
The carry-over from the 2021 crop into the 2022/23 season of 137,969 in-shell equivalent tons represents an increase of 39,915 tons (+41%) over prior season.
The 2022 California walnut Objective Crop Estimate is 720,000 in-shell equivalent tons. This is a decrease of about 10,000 tons (-1%) compared to the 2021 crop. It is important to note that this estimate was performed before the extreme heat experienced in the California growing region in early September. This heat caused some level of sunburn and darker color in the crop, which will ultimately lead to less marketable product available. It is too early to quantify the effect of the heat, but most growers expect the crop to be short of earlier expectations.
Through September 30, total crop receipts were reported at 88,181 in-shell tons. This is -16,351 tons (-16%) less than receipts as of September 20, 2021. Harvest began late this season and was slow due to heat in the growing region. October receipts will be a more accurate indicator of overall crop size.
The chart below illustrates September crop receipts over the past 10 seasons in terms of total tonnage and as a percent of the final crop. Assuming the Objective Estimate of 720,000 tons is accurate, the crop was only 12% received as of September 30. This is below the 5 year average of 14% received as of September 30. If the 2022 crop was 14% received, total tonnage would be 630,000 tons.