Cashews - June Update and Market Report
We are not surprised by the overall data, which show a 14.46 percent increase over 2020, with the primary gain coming from China, which is up 97 percent so far this year as a result of the Covid interruption last year.
The fact that the US figures were down both in April and for the year, by slightly over 19 percent, is unsurprising.
This, in our judgement, is due to serious disruptions caused by shipping lines and logistical challenges for US destinations, rather than demand.
The 25% increase in Europe may come as a surprise to some, but we have seen a quick response from many of our clients to assure shipping and stock availability, despite the cost, due to the high demand from the continent.
The actual shock of Cambodia will be seen in terms of imports.
However, while the +800k imports caught us off guard in terms of how far along the process has already progressed, the crop has always been closer to 5-600k than the often reported 200k in recent years.
How did we go a year without Tanzania without a major price increase? And, despite the fact that many experts (typically with an interest in African RCN) have always predicted a VN run-out, it has never happened.
For many years, a path to 1 million MT has been in place, and it appears that it has come to fruition sooner than many would have thought. Another issue to consider is that just because these quantities are visible now, it does not necessarily suggest that they are from a new crop.
We've heard about Cambodia RCN shipments being sold by traders from the nation in recent years, even as early as Q4 of the preceding year, and 2020 was no exception. Even in November and December, our on-the-ground personnel was contacted for assistance in moving previous season material before the new crop arrived.
With the aforementioned facts in hand, it comes as no surprise that the previous 10 days have been a little quieter than the first three weeks of May.
The cashew market is still complicated, and its sheer size and complexity make it difficult to predict future trends, but we hope the above helps.