With new crop Chilean raisins coming up most producers/exporters are worried about the development of the exchange rate Peso/USD. The USD has devaluated against the Peso in the last few months (around 7% since beginning of 2023), so chances are export prices in USD will go up.
Also, the prices of raw materials in Chile go up weekly, so grapes are becoming more expensive during this time. Chile was expecting a harvest of raisins of 65 K tons of raw material, but now they don´t see more than 50 K - 55 K tons. Also, the volume of 2023 Chilean crop is less than anticipated. Chile can still dry grapes during February and March, but drying fields until today are still quite empty.
Chilean exporters are well aware that above a certain price, EU will have problems buying Chilean Flame raisins. So, they prefer to keep the prices as long as possible at the current levels.
Regarding the availability of Thompson-variety for goldens, the situation is more critical. The lack of grapes is considerable, and Chile have other industries, like the juice/white wine industry, willing to pay better than the raisins industry for the grapes,. The lack of white wine is huge because the places where the varieties for white wine were produced (Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc), have had years and years of drought. These volumes have diminished and as a result the wine and juice industry uses Thompson and similar varieties to blend. The raisins industry can't compete with them. In particular, volume from Chile for Thompson raisins and goldens will be limited this season.