End of Year Nut Update
Almond Key Points
- January and February drought issues are cause for concern for the 2022/2023 crop
- This year’s crop saw a good bloom
- Low water allocations and record high temperatures in June meant the crop couldn’t develop as well as expected.
- Water availability and cost of water could well have a significant effect on the final yield and might deter less established farmers from actually harvesting their almonds.
Pistachio Key Points
- Conditions were good from November to February. That coupled with a good bloom will mean the 2021/22 crop will be large.
- Pistachio quality has improved with farmers harvesting early and shaking twice, undergoing winter sanitations and utilising maturing disruption pest controls.
- New plantings are going in at a 5.7% a year rate.
- Some of the pandemic related habits that led to a 10% growth in snack consumption are to remain.
- The 2021/22 crop is forecast at 145,000 Tons due to severe frost and heat damage.
- The crop will be comprised of 36% Ahmad Aghaei, 32% Fondoghi, 10% Jumbo and 15% Akban
- Iran now has 340,000 HA bearing acres
- Expected to reach 200,000MT on average per year for the next 4-5 years.
- Expecting a strong off year. Weather was adequate with average rainfall but lower than average chilling hours and exhausted trees from last years bumper crop.
- 380,000 acres in country are still not bearing.
- Growing regions are expanding towards the south east with better growing practices and therefore should yield better than the national average.
Walnut Key Points
- 2021/22 Crop forecasted at 1.1million Tonnes, some bad weather could affect the total end crop yield in April/May time.
- Droughts in Winter could affect nut sizes, causing them to be smaller than 2021 in Yunnan.
- 2021 Q1 exports were up 2070% in comparison to 2020
- Small decrease in production was expected due to drought, alternating bearing cop and older varieties being removed
- The 2021 harvest was completed in May and was of very good quality.
- Total volume down by around 10% as expected due to drought
- 70% of crop was committed by May, well above average for that time of year.
Hazelnut Key Points
- Good crop expectations despite frost concerns in February/March time.
- Carry in will be high so total supply is up largely.
- Turkish crop growth is based on increased productivity which has reached up to 1.6 MT in some grower regions
- The 2020 bumper crop reached the potential productivity of 2-2.5 MT and quality was excellent
- A 2021/22 off year should follow suit
- Winter weather was adequate for pollination. A frost in February was limited to certain areas affecting young trees and older varieties.
- Last April was the driest on record but a high number of new acres are coming into production
- 2021/22 is expected to match last years bumper crop despite frost damage and a dry summer.
Cashew Key Points
- Slightly reduced 2021/22 crop with West Africa down 6% and Vietnam 11%
- Logistical issues were the main challenge especially in Africa hampering the flow of raw material to Asian processors
- There has been a price recovery in 2021 following steep decreases in 2019 and 2020
Pecan Key Points
- Kernel yield was around 44% lower than average last year.
- Colder weather and snow in the largest producing states of Chihuahua favoured development.
- Of the 2020 crop, 137,200 MT were exportable, high kernel yielding and good quality pecans.
- Weather conditions have been stable, and a slight crop increase is expected.
- Frosts before the 2020 harvest did impact trees in New Mexico and late spring frosts have delayed crop development in Oklahoma and Northern Texas.
- Bearing average to increase to 3%
South Africa –
- Since 2015, new plantings are 4,500 ha per year and production will grow for the next 10 years.
- By 2025-2030, the crop size will have doubled.
- Yields will be very good under irrigation.