Firmness in the Poppy seed market due to low crop estimate
According to market signals, it feels like 2008 when we had the all-time high prices. Estimates are still low and it is not getting any better...
Predictions on the basis of estimates from the Czech Statistical office are aiming on a maximum new crop volume for 2018 of 15.000 MTs only.
Considering the last 5 years volume overview, 2018 estimated volumes are the far lowest within this 5 year range.
Just as an example: 2018 Mts are 47 % down compared with (the high) 2016 volumes, where 2018 compared with the previous year 2017, is down by 29 % (where other estimates are even hinting on figures down by over 30 %).
This huge fallback appears to be a direct result of both a lower number of ha’s which have been planted as well as (and this has influenced the current expected volume most) the low yield expectation(s) (MT/Ha).
Considering the total (lower) volume this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if the prices remain at somewhat higher levels.
Unfortunately this is the actual situation and we are stuck in these very unfortunate and unpredictable market circumstances.