Hazelnuts, Price Speculations

Mundus-Agri: The TMO offers leave buyers dissatisfied, as overly favorable sales by some suppliers have created unrealistic expectations. Political developments are also strongly influencing the market, and market players are eagerly awaiting Ferrero's actions.

Rainfall could affect quality

The Turkish hazelnut market is currently buzzing with activity. The farmers are still satisfied with the growing conditions, and the quantity of the crop is not threatened for the time being. However, there could be a problem with the quality because announced rainfalls in the Black Sea region could, on the one hand, delay the harvest and, on the other hand, lead to mold infestation and increased aflatoxin levels. However, market players are not too concerned yet. According to their reports, demand is present, but it could be better.

The Turkish Speculations 

According to Turkish traders, however, the real issue at the moment is the price development. The TMO has announced its purchase offer of TRY 52/kg for raw hazelnuts, which corresponds to about TRY 104/kg for raw kernels, 11-13 mm and 13-15 mm. However, no buyers can be found at these prices; according to the traders, they are not willing to pay TRY 93/kg. This is because suppliers have already concluded contracts with European buyers in advance at prices below EUR 5.00/kg DAP Central Europe. Market players are therefore pushing for commodity prices below TRY 45/kg, but are meeting justified resistance from growers. Rumour has it that the TMO and the government are already putting pressure on Ferrero to keep purchase prices at a minimum of TRY 48/kg. One reason for this is likely to be the Turkish parliamentary elections next year - the ruling party is keen not to upset its voters. "The world loves Turkish drama series and the hazelnut market is one of the biggest dramas at the moment," one market players explains with gallows humor.

The question is whether Ferrero will go along with these demands. Another possibility would be for the market leader to stock up on goods from Italy, Chile, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, which are also expecting good crops. Georgia and Azerbaijan, in particular, have residual stocks due to the war in Ukraine. The TMO's further action will also prove to be decisive. Prices on the European spot market have increased compared to last week, but may differ depending on the supplier.