July Seeds Market Update...
New crop will arrive about end November earliest this year as the plantings were delayed in Northern China due to heavy rain in March/April.
Plantings have been good this year but it is too early to know how the new crop will look – later in August we will have the first ideas.
All depends on the weather in the coming months , demand domestically in China is very high especially for December onwards for the New year celebrations/holidays.
As per last year some exporters are worried that Speculators will get involved in the market again and we may see prices move up again .
The market in Bulgaria has tightened up in the last few weeks as processors scramble for the last remaining current crop material to fulfil their existing contract. We are unable to purchase any more current crop at the moment.
New crop is expected to be shipped mid/end September this year so we feel that stocks here and in mainland Europe will be very short until October 15.
A good crop is expected as plantings were up but demand for oilseed sunflower is also up so we don’t see any major downward movement in the foreseeable future.
China is still very competitive against USA origin at the moment. Feel prices are currently very attractive and the fact that a lot of farmers in China have planted pumpkin this year instead of sunflower may signify that the sunflower market is near its bottom.
Prices in India are quite volatile at the moment, depending on demand ,recently a large tender from Korea for 8000 mt of natural sesame pushed the market back up after several weeks of it being soft. New crop is not until end October /early November so feel that prices are not likely to drop much at least until the new crop tonnage is known in Autumn.
Both brown and yellow are historically very low at the moment with plentiful supply. Would suggest taking cover at least until October/November 2015.
Prices a have edged up a bit in the USA with increased demand lately. New crop will not be available until October at the earliest so advise taking cover.
Levels have stabilised and supply is plentiful so would suggest taking some cover up to October 2015.