Lentils, Market Outlook, 07.09.2023
The Canadian lentil crop is forecast to be the smallest in five years at 1.536 million tonnes. This is due to a combination of factors, including drought conditions in Western Canada and lower than expected yields. The exportable quantity of lentils is expected to be 1.4 million tonnes, including a very small carryover of about 100,000 tonnes.
Prices for lentils have been rising in recent weeks, reflecting the tight supply situation. Red lentils are expected to be below 1 million tonnes, while other types of lentils, such as large greens and small greens, are expected to total 0.536 million tonnes.
The harvest is about 60% complete in Saskatchewan and is expected to be 80% complete by September 1st. New crop lentil deliveries have been strong, with 79,000 tonnes moved during July 2023.
Russian red lentils prices have grown significantly following prices in Canada and Australia. A price rise of USD 100 pmt have been recorded in last 30 days. Russia / Kazak lentils offer a cheaper alternative to destinations in Egypt, Turkey and other ME countries of Iraq, Iran, Jordan and UAE. Now, India has allowed free imports of Russian lentils until 30th June 2024 without any restrictions looking at the surge in demand. The quality of Russian origins is lower, so most of the buyers in EU and UK prefer Canadian or Turkish origin. So, it’s out of competition, but it still have affect to world prices.
Turkiye harvested a total of 450,000 tonnes of lentils in 2023, of which 400,000 tonnes were red lentils and 50,000 tonnes were green lentils. but domestic prices have risen sharply due to increased demand and concerns about the size of the Canadian lentil crop. Turkey has returned to the import market, buying Canadian lentils at a higher price than before. The tight market is likely to keep lentil prices high in the coming months.
Australia is expected to produce 1.3 million tonnes of lentils in 2023-24, up from 1.1 million tonnes in 2022-23. However, dry conditions have been reported in some key growing regions, which could impact yields. Australia exported 1.3 million tonnes of lentils in 2022-23, up from 707,581 tonnes in 2021-22. India imported 337,571 tonnes of Australian lentils in April-June 2023. The Australian lentil market is expected to remain tight in the coming months, due to the combination of tight supplies and strong demand.
Indian red lentil prices have risen sharply due to poor domestic crop and good demand. The government is expected to increase MSP for Rabi crops, and traders have offered imported lentils. Prices are expected to rise further by mid-October.
The global lentil market is expected to remain tight in the coming months, due to the small Canadian lentil crop and good demand from India. Prices for lentils are expected to remain high, which is good news for Canadian farmers but could lead to higher prices.