Macadamia Market Update 11.11.26
The global macadamia market has experienced considerable price pressure throughout the 2026 season, driven by increased production, shifting trade dynamics and varying demand across key markets. Prices are currently estimated to be 15–30% lower than at the start of the season, depending on kernel style, making macadamias increasingly competitive against other tree nuts.
Global Supply
The 2026 global macadamia crop is estimated to be approximately 18% larger than in 2025, with particularly strong production growth in South Africa and China. South Africa’s crop has exceeded earlier expectations, contributing to increased global availability.
Kenya is also forecasting a significant increase in production. However, the volume likely to reach the market remains uncertain due to quality concerns and reduced processor appetite for inshell purchases. A proportion of the Kenyan crop is expected to be unsuitable for commercial sale.
Global Demand
Demand remains mixed across key markets. US consumption has been relatively flat, partly reflecting ongoing disruption following the introduction of tariffs on macadamia imports, while European demand continues to show steady growth.
China has emerged as a particularly important market in recent months. Following a slow start to the year, reported quality issues with its domestic crop have encouraged increased inshell purchasing. South African exports to China are expected to reach record levels in 2026, with more than half of the country’s crop potentially destined for the inshell market.
Retail demand is also showing encouraging signs, particularly through discount retailers and club stores, where lower shelf prices have helped stimulate consumption. With macadamias now competitively priced against several alternative tree nuts, some substitution is also being reported.
Market Outlook
Following the significant price correction seen throughout 2026, there are growing indications that the market may be approaching a price floor. Stronger purchasing activity from China, combined with increasing retail demand, is providing support to the market.
Furthermore, the substantial volume of South African production being directed towards the inshell market is reducing the availability of kernels for processing. This is beginning to create tighter supply conditions in certain kernel styles.
While the market has faced a challenging year, the combination of more competitive pricing, improving demand and tightening kernel availability provides a more positive outlook heading into 2027.
Overall, macadamias currently represent an attractive buying opportunity, with market conditions showing early signs of stabilisation.
