The annual crop is expected to be in the range of 270k MT to 275k MT, which is a 10% increase from 2021. Australia estimate now stands at a 10% decrease compared to earlier projections. The new estimate now is 49.3k MT against 51.5k MT last year. South Africa 2022 crop stands at 57.7k MT, an 8% increase compared to 2021, with indications towards 60k MT this year. Kenya is expected to grow 4% (41.5k MT compared to 39.7k MT last year). China was expected to have a crop of 50k MT this year, however there are concerns over reduction of crop by 30% due to lower temperatures,rains and grey mold issues.
With the uncertainty caused by the economic situation, the pandemic in China, and the war in Ukraine, most buyers of broken kernel styles are only buying hand to mouth, leaving large inventories of smaller kernel styles (typically used in baking and confectionery grades). The price gap between the wholes and smaller styles continues to be high.
New crop kernel from Australia and South Africa are expected to be in the market only from July/August; also, the lack of demand frorn China and the EU has led the NIS market to soften in the last two months and could follow a similar trend if the demand doesn't pull up.