March Shipment Report - Almond Update
The total shipments have been 193.945.114 lb. versus 178.190.602 lb., +8.8% in the same month last year. The uncommitted inventory is now 551.913.639 lb., -10% than last year.
This is the sixth month in a row of record shipments and the overall figures ranged on the upper end of expectations. Domestic shipments were very impressive and up a record 12.6% at 63.28 mm lbs. Export shipments are up a strong 7.1% at 130.67 mm lbs, led be China, up 28% (13.77 mm) and Western Europe up 15% (56.73 mm). India was again down 25% (9.45 mm) for the month, although still up 24% for the year, and Middle East down 18% (15.65 mm lbs) for the month, however also still up 3% on the year. Again and again 2017 crop continues to perform beyond expectation.
Coming into April, the industry was poised for another strong report, although this may be stronger than most were predicting. Overall, shipments are still pacing almost 12% ahead of last year, with inventory down 5.63%. Commitments are flat to last year after a few months of regression, though inventory still down 10%. New sales were similar to last month, yet better than expected at 112 mm lbs. This is impressive given the frost concerns and prices rising and most recently succumbing some of their gains. Crop receipts added little to the supply in March with 6.3 million lbs – no surprises here.
If the industry ships the same than last year in the next months until July, will be around 310/330 Mlls.lbs. carry-out. And this can be considered very low in the actual circumstances, when right now it is quite difficult to find concrete items in the market. We expect shipments to gradually slow down pace as we move into summer (due to supply) and carryout to hone in near 350-360 mm lbs. To most everyone’s relief pricing has seen some softening from the post freeze highs, with standards trading between $2.65-68, Cal SSR 27/30 near $2.85-87, and NPX 27/30 $3.40-3.42.
Everybody is now anticipating TERRANOVA’s estimation to be published soon.We feel most growers are anticipating a figure close to last year’s overall supply while most buyers are anticipating a record supply, perhaps even close an average yield per acre (2.45 bb lbs). With all the anticipation it is hard to imagine a scenario where prices aren’t affected.
23rd April, NASS Almond Acreage Report.
10th May, Subjective Estimation.
5th July, Objective Estimation.