Market Report: Brazil Nuts
The spot market of Brazil nut kernels is as good as empty. The main two reasons for this situation are:
1. Because of the high prices in origin at the beginning of the season, importers waited with buying as long as possible for lower prices.
2. Because of the high prices at the end of last season, buyers waited for prices to come down, which resulted in only hand-to-mouth purchases. These two effects are the cause of low stocks in the spot market. When goods do finally arrive, they “vaporize.”
The Brazil nut crop is maybe the most challenging crop to estimate. It is only after the season that the final balance can be made. The last crop, 2021, was estimated at 27.600 MT kernels (source INC). Bolivia is the biggest supplier with 75%, then Peru with 20% and Brazil with 5%. Last season’s ending stock was deficient mainly because of the high prices.
Crop 2022 looks good, but nobody knows for sure until later this year. The crop is a bit “wet,” and the drying time takes longer.
Supply and demand
Although inland sea transport is slow, “the pipeline” will be filled in two or three months. This will result in a steady supply of goods.
Prices need to come down a bit more. Prices in origin are reaching “normal levels”, resulting in more exciting prices in the local market.
Demand needs to be stabilized. In the short term, goods need to arrive, and in the long term, Brazil nut kernels must remain in the nut mixes and stay on the shelves of the supermarkets.