Market update: Turkish Sultanas
Turkish exports are currently trending ahead of last year by just over 11,000 metric tonnes at the end of March. By the end of the crop come 31st August, this figure will likely have extended to an additional 25,000 to 30,000mt year-on-year. This increase in demand will not overly affect Turkey significantly due to the below points:
Sizable carryover from 2020 crop into 2021 season due to the monumental underestimation of the crop size against Bourse registrations, circa 50,000mt
The expected underestimation of the size of the 2021 crop – is estimated at 290,000mt but likely to be closer to registrations of the 2020 crop at 325,000 mt.
This means that as we approach the 2022 harvest, we will continue to see a surplus of material from Turkey. The only problem is that this material will be mainly in the hands of the TMO, who are still actively trying to sell the 2020 crop alongside having the 2021 crop still to shift. Pricing for both is above the market level today, and there has been minimal interest in it by packers. The market is relatively stable in terms of raw material pricing. Any significant fluctuation is likely to be currency-driven now that the risk of considerable frost damage has passed mainly without any note.
Since the start of the season
The TMO will again be an unknown factor in the market in the future. Historically you would think that given they may well be carrying over 40,000mt forward into the next crop, they would not be active buyers for 2022 material. This is likely not to be the case as there is a presidential election due in June 2023, and Erdogan has utilised the tactic of supporting farmers with inflated purchase prices to sway voters his way. Coupled with the fact that the TMO is already searching for additional warehousing space, we fully expect them to be active.