May 2018 Almond Position Report

Date: 12th June 2018 Category: Latest News, Market Report
May 2018 Almond Position Report

The Almond Board of California has released the MAY ALMOND POSITION REPORT with shipments of  +158 million pounds compared to 170 million pounds last year for a decrease of 7.3 percent.

  • DOMESTIC          +66 million lbs   +13.1%
  • EXPORT               +92 million lbs   -17.9%

Shipments for the month of May were down approximately 7.3 percent versus last May, and year-to-date shipments were up double digits 10.24 percent.  Uncommitted inventory is about 19 million pounds or 5.4 percent more over last year. Some major export markets such as Germany, Spain, Netherlands, UK, UAE, Turkey, and China saw decreases in May shipments from 2017 to 2018.  New sales for the month of May reflected the market's activity in general with new sales of only 76 million pounds.  This is a decrease of 47.38 percent versus last year.  New crop sales saw a decrease as well with sales totaling just over 80 million pounds versus 209 million pounds last year.

New sales in May were only 76.1 million pounds compared to last year at 144 million pounds.  The recent increase in Trade/Tariff wars with the USA have made many buyers around the world cautious on making new contracts for current and new crop.

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:  Are now at +1.950 billion pounds compared to 1.769 billion pounds for an increase of +10.24 percent.

CROP RECEIPTS:  The 2017 crop receipts are at +2.257 billion pounds compared to 2.134 billion pounds in 2016, and increase of +5.79% over last year.

OBJECTIVE CROP ESTIMATE: Will be announced in early July.  The Subjective Crop estimate is now at 2.3 billion pounds. Many growers/packers expect the Objective to be between 2.3 to 2.4 billion pounds.  Monterey and Independence Varieties look outstanding with a big crop of them coming.  The Nonpareil crop is averaging quantity looking on the trees.

NEW CROP SALES: Over 80 million pounds of new crop almond shave been sold by May 31 accounting for approximately 3.5% of the new crop has now been sold.

JUNE SHIPMENTS: We expect June shipments to be down approximately 5-10% as many packers are running low on many key items limiting what they may sell for current crop.

Market at a glance: Hesitance and unknowns filled the market the past 30 days resulting in subdued activity.  Prices on current crop, maintained levels above $3.00 per pound for sized California and Carmel Types while Nonpareil varied between sellers ranging between $3.35-$3.50 per pound.  Most recently new crop started to take shape with some consistent pricing, but buyers hesitated in large part to confirm new crop business due to pricing versus last year and the unknown political situations throughout the world and how that could impact their local trade.

This month's shipment report is reflective of the market unknowns and lack of confidence for what the future holds in world trade. The fundamentals of the 2017 crop aren't daunting by any means.  The projected carryout could be somewhere close to last year's carry out figure, which as a percentage is a smaller percentage of total supply, and the total percent sold is right in line with last year (87% vs. 86%) at this time.  The sentiment of the market however is what might have more of an impact on how the market moves forward versus fundamentals of the market.  Cautious buyers will be even more cautious on purchasing opportunities as they arise, and buyers could wait until they sense the market has reached a fair equilibrium point with supply and demand before doing the next round of purchases.

Notable upcoming reports:            July 5th Objective Estimate            July 12th June Position Report