Pecan Nuts Market Update, July 2022

Updated Cold Storage Numbers:

Cold storage numbers have again decreased significantly (27.31 million LBS inshell basis Year Over Year) for the month of May. Pecans continue to ship at record levels with little raw material available in the North American market (less than 10 million pounds).

Current Market Conditions:

Macroeconomic indications continue to be negative with a possible economic recession on the horizon, increased food prices, a strong US dollar, soaring interest rates and an increasingly convoluted logistics situation. These are all concerning and impact the pecan industry.

However, it is our view that pecans are not a typical tree nut commodity and have historically demonstrated inelastic characteristics. While high inflation and logistic challenges are concerning, the relatively small size of the crop, markets in which they are consumed (primarily produced and consumed in North America), and a general change in consumer habits allow for more consistent consumption when compared to other larger tree nut crops.

Market Forecast:

We are predicting a stable market through the near term with the likely possibility that prices continue to strengthen through the 2nd half of 2022. A potential slowdown in consumption is being balanced by a low supply number and steady demand.

 It is likely that these sizes will be more dynamic moving forward as halves have already approached historically high levels.