Pecan Nuts Market Update, June 2023
Current Market Conditions
Demand has been consistent in the pecan market over the last month. Multiple large volume buyers have yet to fully cover positions for 2023, which is keeping prices stable. Inventory levels are at their lowest levels since 2012, when pecans were trading above $7.00/lb.
The following inshell raw material remains open in North America (approximately):
Western USA: 12 million lbs.
Eastern USA: 8 million lbs.
Mexico: 10 million lbs.
These numbers support our previous updates: the North American crop is significantly shorter than originally predicted (by as much as 55 million lbs.). Current prices are almost certainly trading under market fundamentals.
Market Forecast
A currently stable market is likely to strengthen over the coming months. Shorter than predicted crop levels, some quality issues in the harvest, and lack of raw material all signal a tightening of supply and an eventual price increase.
As previously forecasted, the spread between halves and pieces has significantly decreased this season. Some sizes of pieces are already trading above pecan halves. We expect this trend to continue as most pecan pieces are in short supply with little open inventory remaining.