Pine nuts: 2022/2023 crop to decline by almost 30%

Mundus - Agri: BEIJING/MOSCOW. In the 2021/2022 season, almost 150,000 mt of pine nuts were harvested worldwide. The forecast for the coming 2022/2023 season, however, is less optimistic. Production in China alone is expected to decline by 60%.

China expects 60% smaller crop

According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), the 2021/2022 global pine nut production result was 147,080 mt, up from the previous year despite lower availability from Mongolia. China achieved by far the best result of the 5-year harvest cycle with 63,000 mt.

For the coming crop, experts' estimates are significantly lower. Production could drop by 60% to 25,000 mt, of which 20,000 mt are accounted for by the most common variety Pinus koraiensis. Other producing countries such as North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Mongolia also expect lower yields. At the same time, production in Russia is expected to increase by 17%, and in the Mediterranean region, such as Turkey, Italy and Spain, a better result than last year is currently expected. Due to drought, forest fires and pests, the availability of goods from the Mediterranean region has steadily declined in recent years. This deficit could only be remedied by reforestation, for which there are currently various initiatives in Turkey as well as in the EU. Overall, the INC estimates the pine nut crop in 2022/2023 at 107,100 mt - a decline of around 27%.

Massive price increases

Rising labour costs, higher transport fees, coronavirus-relatede restrictions, and currency fluctuations have had a negative impact on pine nut exports from China in recent years, causing prices to rise. Good domestic demand, which is met by more than 70-80% of the crop volume, is also keeping prices at their high level.

Germany, however, has actually increased its imports from China again in the first nine months of the 2021/2022 season. In the first Covid year, demand was partly met via Russia, as the strict measures made imports from Mongolia, from where China obtains additional raw materials, difficult or impossible.

On the European spot market, prices for shelled pine nuts, Pinus koraiensis, 650 are at a level of EUR 32.35/kg FCA Spain.