Seed Market Outlook 11.12.23
Demand out of Europe is still subdued, a lot of cover was taken for the first quarter of 2024, keeping prices at relatively low levels. However, demand is starting to pick up for quarter one and quarter two of next year, with some packers being reluctant to go right through to the end of 2024. Yellow/Golden linseed is a little scarcer and would be advisable to cover volumes now.
As mentioned in previous market reports, we are now seeing markets appreciate further in line with rising oil prices. The shortage of sunflower kernels in Bulgaria is a contributing factor with revised figures estimating a shortfall as high as 24% by comparison to last year. Of course, this has intensified the farmers to hold onto stock in efforts to further increase their sale price. Taking into consideration the above factors we predict further price rises.
Not much has changed, the market seems to have settled and prices appear to have levelled out somewhat with new crop now being offered out. Competitive offers are being proposed and are now starting to see offers further out into late next year. This appears to be a good opportunity to book required volumes as and where you can.
There has been no real change in the Poppyseed market and this week's update sits in line with previous weeks. This season's crop appears to unravel as being less and less optimistic as the harvest goes on, this year's yields will be considerably down in comparison to previous years, with no other origins to offer a real competitive comparison, so far. It is estimated that this year's yields are 14,000-15,000 mt of which 5,000 mt have already been sold. This is pushing up prices further for Czech material and is becoming apparent other origins will follow suit. The quality looks good, but prices look to remain extremely firm.
Not a great deal has changed from our last report. Weather conditions have continued to impact the total estimated crop yields. It is believed, that overall, the crop is down by as much as 30% due to the rainy conditions during harvest combined with immediate hot weather thereafter. However, this simply means that new crop is equal to last year's yields. Nonetheless, domestic demand is fairly stagnant at the moment as well as exports. This has caused prices for both GWS and Shine Skin prices to slightly ease in the short term.