Seed Market Outlook 12.02.24
Not a great deal has changed since the last report. The market remains firm, however, demand is relatively slow in Europe and as a result, stabilising the market at current levels. The general consensus is that the raw material will sit at these levels until the new season's crop and then will hopefully come down.
The advice given is to cover volumes to Q3 in hopes the new crop will come down in price. Besides this, it is now rumoured that the golden/yellow linseed could be down as much as 30% compared to last year’s supply, but this has yet to be reflected in the price.
We maintain a similar view on the sunflower seed market. Farmers in Europe still hold a strong stance on stock and limiting sales, anticipating that this will push up raw material prices.
Equally, crushing is increasing significantly and also influencing and overall shortage of sunflower, in turn pushing up prices slowly but steadily, as it remains relatively competitive in comparison to other seed and vegetable oils, in addition to low olive oil production in particular.
Prices remain fairly stable at current levels. There are some deals to be had on short-term positions, however, contracts further out will grant a bit of a premium. Looking to the US it remains much more expensive by comparison to the European market.
As predicted, prices going into the new year have pushed up to record highs and the general thought is, it will continue to do so as the season moves on. It is reported that not a lot of Poppy seed is left in the Czech market, as little as 4000-5000mt are still available. However, as it moves up, it is predicted the raw material price at some point will peak, perhaps before the new crop.
Chinese New Year has started, and so production has been completely halted. This will halt any production for the next week until the celebrations have ended.
The carryover of pumpkin seeds is now fully in the trader’s hands and as a result, we are expecting the market to firm after the Chinese New Year. GWS grade in particular is following the same trend as shine skin as it starts to increase.