Seed Market Outlook 27.10.2023

The recent drop in food prices has largely been attributed to a fall in energy prices, which for the better part of 2023 have been coming down from the peak levels seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

Food inflation is starting to ease but seems we are not out of the woods just yet.

Flaxseed – Now, in combination with yield speculation, it has been highlighted that there may be some quality concerns specifically surrounding moisture content and color disparities. However, it appears that export demand is strong and is now starting to support higher prices as a result. Canadian crop now seems like a non-event for the European market, being approximately a third smaller compared to last year.

Sunflower – Contrary to previous predictions, prices are still at reasonably stable levels. The market is relatively quiet and appears to have created a buyers’ market opportunity. Farmers and packers alike are willing to discount material in order to win business. However, the belief is still that this will be short-lived what with oil prices still running at higher levels and the Sunseed imports from the Ukraine still unpredictable.

Millet – Not much has changed, the market seems to have settled and prices appear to have leveled out somewhat with new crop now being offered out. However, there are still some yield concerns due to abnormally hot weather, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the fact that some suppliers are in a short position. It is believed that prices will be stable to the end of the year and possibly increase as of the new year, in-line with previous years trending. Prices are holding stable but still some disparities in offers.

Poppy – No real change in the Poppy seed market. This season’s crop appears to unravel as being less and less optimistic as the harvest goes on, this year’s yields will be considerably down in comparison to previous years, with no other origins to offer a real competitive comparison, so far. Prices for Czech material are starting to push up and its becoming apparent other origins will follow suit. The quality looks good, but prices look to remain firm.

Pumpkin – Weather conditions have caused a decrease in the estimated crop yields. It is believed, overall, the crop is down by as much as 30% due to the rainy conditions during harvest combined with immediate hot weather thereafter. However, this simply means that new crop is equal to last year’s yields. On a separate note, we may see prices starting to rise due to farmers buying up stock at a faster rate. Money has become slightly easier for the farmers and traders to borrow from the bank, in turn they are buying up as much raw material as they can in order to support inflated prices. GWS pumpkin seed remains relatively stable at high levels and looks to continue this trend throughout the year.