In general, the seed market is still very bullish being the result of poor yields throughout Europe, high freight costs and a squeeze in the supply chain out of China.
The strong GBP is at least off-setting the imported costs.
I believe there to be some large volume cover to be had for Q3&Q4 – Sunflower in particular.
Brown Linseed – Market firm
Golden Linseed – Market firm
Millet – Stable but firming
Sunflower – Withdrawn currently
Pumpkin – Market firm
Poppy – Market stable
Farmers playing hard ball and good volume going into China is keeping this market firm.
The raw material prices have remained stable to September – sellers cautious of offering new crop.
The market is stable with a slight increase leading to Easter. New crop prices are not established yet.
Exporters only willing to offer on a limited basis. The market has risen by around 15% since Chinese New Year. In about one month the sowing season will start, and it has been rumored that, due to authority′s new subsidizing of corn and wheat, there will be a significant reduction in the acreage of pumpkin sown and it will occur in both northwest and northeast origin, which are the major origins . With a poor carry over and a rising market, dealers and processors who hold raw material stock are reluctant to sell at the moment which is keeping prices high. Whilst a fraction lower this week, sea freight is still a significant cost.
Our processors have withdrawn from the market due to the uncertainty of buying raw material. We are seeing a 12-13 year high in seed and Sun-oil currently, with Soya and Palm also very firm due to drought in South America and poor yields in the Far East. China remains a colossal buyer of all veg. oil.
I cannot see this market falling over the next 6-8 months, particularly as there is still significant buying to be done in Q3-4.