Seeds Market Outlook, 03.10.2023
Fierce competition between supermarkets has led to the first monthly drop in food prices for more than two years, an industry body has said. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said prices in September were down 0.1% from the previous month. The BRC said food prices rose by 9.9% in the year to September, down from a rate of 11.5% in August.
The recent weather conditions in Kazakhstan have played a crucial role in shaping this year’s flaxseed crop. The harvest faced a significant three-week delay because of continuous rainfall throughout the country. Occurring during a crucial period for flaxseed growth from late August to mid-September. Quality issues pose another significant challenge for Kazakhstan’s 2023 flaxseed crop. The initial batches harvested from this season are of high humidity and color discrepancies, making the produced batches less appealing to potential buyers. Flaxseed buyers typically prefer high-quality flaxseed, and as a result, Russian or Canadian flaxseed may become a more attractive option for many importers.
The past few weeks have been somewhat volatile for the Bulgarian sunflower seed market as farmers protest over Ukrainian sunflower seeds and crop revisions. While the government was expected to lift the ban on Ukrainian sunflower seeds on the 15th of September, farmer protests and negotiations with the government overturned the decision, and the ban will not be lifted as a result. This decision comes at a time of insufficient supply in Bulgaria, and downward crop revisions. The latest estimates are for a 1.7 million mt crop in Bulgaria, and about 2.3 million mt in Romania, which are significantly lower than August expectations. Crushers are leading the way with purchases and may see a quick increase.
Prices seemed to have leveled out somewhat with new crop now being offered out. However, there are still some yield concerns due to abnormally hot weather, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the fact that some suppliers are in a short position. It is believed that prices will be stable to the end of the year and possibly increase as of the new year, in-line with previous years trending.
This season’s crop appears unravel as being less and less optimistic as the harvest goes on, this year’s yields will be considerably down in comparison to previous years, with no other origins to offer a real competitive comparison, so far. Prices for Czech material are starting to push up and its becoming apparent other origins will follow suit.
Harvest has now started, and it is becoming clear that extreme heat this year during the pollination period has had an effect. Shine Skin prices are holding steady this week, but it is expected as more material comes into the market the prices will start to fall steadily. GWS on the other hand is expected to increase, farmers are reluctant to sell and thus pushing up price levels. Overall, the harvest has been slightly delayed due to rainy weather.