Sultanas: crop forecast and TMO prices give direction
Mundus Agri. In Turkey, trading activity is relatively low due to the long weekend, and the upcoming elections are the no 1 topic in the markets. Meanwhile, last year's EU imports were 5% lower than in 2021.
It's a case of wait and see
After the long weekend at the end of Ramadan, the Turkish dried fruit market had a leisurely start into the new week. There is still no data regarding frost damage, this is expected in the coming days. This, combined with the TMO's decision on whether and when to sell raw materials from the current season, are decisive factors for the further price development. Growers who still have stocks would like to sell them, but also want to base their offers to the TMO's prices. Currently, market players reckon that prices will remain at the current level, if not even increase.
In addition, the upcoming elections in three weeks' time are fuelling uncertainties about the country's economic and financial situation, and the lira is proving very volatile, which is why many exporters prefer to quote daily prices. During his election campaign, Turkey's incumbent President Erdoğan visited the Manisa region to assure that the TMO would continue to purchase raw materials to support growers. Spring brings sunny weather to Manisa and Turkey in general, coupled with regular rain showers. The outlook currently suggests that the risk of frost is over for this year.
Export prices still stable for the time being
Export prices are largely stable, but may be adjusted at short notice due to exchange rate fluctuations. Trading activity on the commodity exchanges was close to zero due to the short week and exports were also lower. Last week, 2,852 mt of sultanas and raisins were exported from Turkey, compared to almost 2,000 mt more in the same week last year. Overall, exports since the beginning of this season are at 166,290 mt, a similar level to this time last year.
China wants to increase competition
Due to the uncertain situation in Turkey and also in Uzbekistan, Chinese dried fruit exporters are hoping for growing market shares, because even with rising prices China could still score.
EU imported a good 170,000 mt
In 2022, the EU imported a total of 170,235 mt of sultanas from third countries, about 5% less than last year. Turkey is by far the most important supplier with a share of 130,706 mt (+13% yoy), followed by South Africa (-30% to 16,800 mt), Uzbekistan (+28% to 6,260 mt) as well as Iran (-69% to 5,541 mt) and China (-68% to 2,233 mt).