Mundus Agri. While the 62nd International Dried Grape Conference held online on 3 November showed that global sultana and raisin production will decline by 4.5% in the Northern Hemisphere and by 3.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, exporters in Turkey are working at full capacity to complete their orders before Christmas. Shipments are, however, falling short of expectations.
Dent in supplies
Good news is that it has finally started to rain in Manisa. Growers hope that the rain will last until the end of the week as the vines require the water to recover from this year’s production. Estimates issued at the International Grape Conference, in fact, show that Turkey will produce 320,000 mt of sultanas and raisins in 2022, thereby accounting for 27% of global production, which is estimated at 1.17 million mt for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere combined. Next in line is China with 190,000 mt, followed by the USA with 172,741 mt and India with 145,000 mt. Production in Iran will only reach 110,000 mt. As adverse weather conditions impacted production in most countries and carry-over supplies declined, available marketing supplies will range 7% lower than last year at 1,38 million mt.
Export target defies reality
The producing countries are, however, optimistic that global exports will climb by 12.8% to 626,284 mt this year. Turkey even intends to export 270,000 mt in 2022, meaning that its market share would rise to 43%. The country has typically a share of around 35%. Turkey’s seedless dried raisin exports, in fact, presently range at 69,007 mt this season so far. November exports have certainly picked up, and weekly exports recently ranged at 5,501 mt, which is up on the 5,365 mt recorded in the same week last year. Issue is that exporters are busy shipping orders in time for Christmas. Yet, they are not really satisfied as this year’s lower prices should attract much more interest.