Tropical Fruit Market Report 11.05.26
Pineapple Market Analysis
Thailand’s pineapple industry is currently in its summer harvest peak, expected to continue until mid-to-late June 2026. However, production has been heavily impacted by prolonged drought conditions linked to El Niño, which began in late 2025.
Key Pineapple Market Trends
- Increased share of smaller-sized fruit
- Reduced yield per hectare due to water shortages
- Rising pineapple prices since April 2026 (Songkran period)
The lack of rainfall has resulted in inconsistent fruit development, affecting both fresh market supply and processing-grade pineapples, which are critical for canning and juice production.
Pineapple Price Forecast
Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain firm/increasing through Q3 2026, supported by:
- Tight supply conditions
- Strong export demand
- Ongoing climate pressures
Winter Crop Outlook
The next pineapple crop cycle could face further disruption:
- Possible harvest delay to October–November 2026
- Rising fertiliser and input costs are limiting farmer investment
- Risk of reduced planting area due to cash constraints
Mango
The Southeast Asia mango market is experiencing a notable supply shortage in 2026, primarily due to reduced imports from Cambodia into Thailand.
Cambodia Mango Import Challenges
- Political tensions have restricted cross-border trade
- Limited sea shipments due to:
- High logistical risk
- Potential non-tariff barriers
As a result, Cambodian mango availability has significantly declined, creating a supply gap across the region.
Thailand Mango Supply Response
Thai producers are attempting to compensate by increasing production of local mango varieties, but:
- Domestic supply is insufficient
- Varieties differ in processing quality and volume
Mango Price Trends 2026
- Prices are significantly higher compared to 2025
- Supply remains well below normal levels
Papaya
Papaya supply across Southeast Asia has remained low since late 2025, with no strong recovery expected in the near term.
Supply vs Demand Imbalance
While supply is limited, demand from the processing sector (canning and dried fruit) is also weak. This has created a unique situation where:
- Farmers are not incentivised to expand papaya production
- Growers are shifting to fresh market crops with better margins
Long-Term Outlook
- Ongoing supply constraints expected through 2027
- Limited investment in papaya cultivation
- Increasing fragmentation in sourcing
What This Means for Buyers
Some key recommendations for the Southeast Asian fruit market are to secure long-term contracts early, especially for pineapple and mango. Make sure to build a buffer inventory where possible in the event of more extreme weather.
