Tropical Fruit, Market Update, July 2023
The summer crop has ended in the last 1-2 weeks, and most canned pineapple packers are closed for their annual maintenance. This maintenance could last until late October, depending on the next winter crop. We have experienced a 30% decrease in fresh pineapple supply compared to the summer crop of 2022.
The growers are now entering the rainy season in Thailand, although it has come quite late due to the long drought this year. The rain has not yet been significant, so we need to wait and see how the weather conditions will affect the next winter crop in October/November. We will need at least two weeks to get a clearer picture of the upcoming winter crop.
Due to the continuous shortage of supply in the last two years, the suppliers have seen a significant increase in the number of papaya plantations this year. However, water supply is still a major concern due to the long drought in Thailand. The official irrigation department has announced that it will stop supplying water to most agricultural areas and give priority to the municipality for human consumption. We should have a clearer picture of the situation in September, ahead of the coming crop in October-December.
The summer mango season has ended and the crop was quite short, although good. This meant that some packers were unable to catch the season properly. The next season will be in winter, when the crop is normally smaller than the summer one. However, this year, due to the long drought, we expect the impact on this winter crop. In other words, we expect the supply in this winter to be less than in the same period last year.
The annual crop is expected to start in August onwards. For now, the local fresh ginger price is very high as the carryover from last year is over. We have seen an increase in the number of plantations this year due to good prices last year. However, we expect the fruit yield to be lower due to the lack of water during the beginning of the crop. Therefore, due to the attractive pricing for now, farmers may tend to harvest the young ginger more for sale, which may affect the supply of mature ginger later on.
The crop has not improved in general. This is mainly due to the lack of water and domestic demand for tourism. Cantaloupe is a fruit that requires a lot of water. We still expect cantaloupe to be volatile in the next 2-3 months.
The supply has returned to normal after the price went up in the last 2 weeks. We expect stable supply during this quarter (July-September) due to its annual peak season.
Other factors affecting the market
The rise in sugar prices is another factor that may affect the current market for both canned and DHD fruits. As of today, the domestic sugar price has increased by about 30% in the last 1-2 months. However, due to the weak global economy, Thai packers are currently maintaining their offers. However, we expect the new sugar cost to soon impact new offers, as we have already seen some Chinese packers make new costings.