Tropical Fruit, Market Update
The following season (the winter crop) is expected to be in regular supply because of good rainfall. However, the factors of high inflation of gasoline, fertilizers, and related pesticides have remained, affecting the supply.
The shortage situation will be more complicated than 5-6 years ago due to repeat flooding in the Northern and Southern plantation areas at the end of last year.
Many farmers have switched to growing the other plants. We expect that the situation in Q4 may be a bit better (Nov 2022 onwards). Plus the rise in plantation costs such as fertilizer and pesticides, the supply of papaya would still be low.
The Mango crop ends now, and the quantity in peak season was more than expected, but the price level is still the same as it's a break-even price. The price cannot go down further.
The peak season was relatively short, so the quantity of fresh mango collected was limited. Because of limited labor and the Covid-19 situation during the peak season, the factory cannot collect the raw material as much as possible.
Due to the low Ginger price last year, the farmers have switched to growing the other plants. After surveying the plantation area, it decreases by 40%.
We have expected that the supply of this incoming crop, starting around August onwards, will substantially decrease. The cost of Ginger plantation is also higher because they need high fertilizer.
The price had improved better in May. We expect the price to remain in Q3 because our government will implement the lockdown to import Coconut from July – to September, which is the high season.
The supply remains less due to the lack of labor for plantations and harvest. However, we have expected that there is a possibility to have a better supply after our government relieves foreign workers' regulation in Q4.