Turbulence in Turkey!!! Frost warning is significant and Turkish Lira volatility

Date: 24th March 2021 Category: Latest News, Market Report
Turbulence in Turkey!!! Frost warning is significant and Turkish Lira volatility

By the first half of March, the bloom time for new crop apricots had already begun in Malatya. The majority of the apricot crop is grown in Malatya's valley area, and the fruit is currently in the "flowering" stage in these fields. This week's weather forecast predicts a significant "frost" risk from Friday to Sunday.

The agricultural warning system has issued a "Red Alert" for the affected area, indicating that the lowest temperatures will be -5 degrees Celsius for three nights in a row. It is a significant risk for the new crop of apricots, as the product may be severely harmed. The current situation has an impact on the quality and quantity of new crop apricots, as well as prices for the remainder of the season and the following season...

The only hope is that the weather will be "snowy" and "cloudy" during those nights, allowing the flowers to survive. In any case, three nights at – 5 C is a significant risk for the product.

Weather forecast for Malatya by Turkish State Meteorological Service.



The US dollar, on the other hand, has risen sharply against the Turkish Lira, reaching a high of 7,80 TL this week. The president of the Central Bank was abruptly replaced. Because the subject situation was not viewed positively by the economic environments, the Turkish Lira lost nearly 10% of its value against foreign currencies in a short period of time.

In fact, the high volatility of the US dollar against the Turkish Lira is causing market uncertainty in the coming weeks. If the US dollar depreciates against the Turkish Lira, we will quickly return to higher export prices. Currency stability is required to allow suppliers to calculate their offers as efficiently as possible. Obviously, currency fluctuations will have a significant impact on the apricot market in the coming days.

In these circumstances, suppliers would like to postpone providing apricots to their customers until next week. It will be more interesting to watch the apricot frost situation this weekend, as well as the currency movement, for a few days. If the dangerous weekend passes without major frost damage and the US$ currency remains higher against the Turkish Lira, suppliers may be able to give their customers better prices than they did in the previous week... If there is severe frost damage over the weekend, the market will skyrocket because there will be a significant supply shortage for this item in the coming months...

More to follow....