Exports in July were 1,754 tons compared to 2,797 tons last year
Total crop year exports are 80,720 tons compared to 87,121 tons last year
Exports are in line with expectations. Turkiye completed the season with exports of 80,720 tons with around 5,000 tons domestic consumption. This is in line with the pre-season crop estimate of 86,000 tons.
We are expecting a 2022 crop of identical size with pipelines primarily empty. The suppliers are in a very similar position to last year's period.
Harvest is nearly complete. The majority of the crop is size 4 and smaller, the fruit is of lower quality compared to last year, with more blemishes and less sugar (hence smaller sizes and a lower fresh to dry yield).
The oversupply of Natural seems to be gone as growers made less due to the low prices last year. A further numbers of organic growers have abandoned their certification and have sulphured their fruit following 2 years with organic prices below conventional prices. Prices for organic have not been finalized yet, but we expect they will be at a premium once more.
Since prices opened 10 days ago, the market has moved 10% higher on strong demand from packers and importers for early shipments.
Many farmers are unwilling to sell at current prices, expecting a similar pattern of price rises as last year, and have delivered their goods to the Borsa Licensed Warehouse, where they can draw cash against their delivery receipt without having to fix a sale price. Storage is free. It’s their hedge against inflation and a falling Lira.
The Lira remains hovering just below 18 to the USD on government intervention.
Farm input costs and packers processing costs have increased massively in USD terms, and freight rates remain stubbornly at historic highs. Exporters are discouraged from using USD loans and are not allowed to keep substantial USD bank balances. Lira interest rates are high, so holding export commodity stocks is an attractive option for packers as well as growers, but packers can not cover significant volume without pushing prices higher.