• Exports in April were 5,516 tons compared to 6,337 tons last year
• Year-to-date exports are 68,077 tons compared to 71,038 tons last year
With 3 months left until new crop we expect final exports to reach 80,000 tons, with 5,000 to 10,000 tons of domestic consumption there will be a tight transition to the new crop again.
Prices have risen sharply over the past fortnight on strong demand from packers and tightening supply as the end of the season approaches. The demand was triggered by worsening prospects for the new crop, short covering and a preference to hold export commodities instead of Turkish currency ahead of the elections on the 14th of May.
It is fair to say that political tensions are high in Turkiye at the moment, and the outcome may well be contentious. Volatility in the foreign exchange rate is anticipated.
The bloom is over, most areas are reporting less fruit than last years 80-90,000 tons mainly due to the persistent heavy rain during the bloom, disease, and some frost damage. As fruit is sparse, sizes are likely to be large, and defects are likely to be high. Crop forecasts will not be possible before end of May or the beginning of June.
We believe organic production will be well down this year as many farmers have canceled their certification due to persistent poor prices.