Walnut Report, October 2022
October 2022 Walnut Report
2022/23 Walnut Supply (inshell tons)
Carry-in from prior season: 137,969
2021 Crop Receipts: 720,000
Total available for shipment: 857,969
Less: Shipments to date thru Oct 31: 68,604
Remaining unshipped supply: 789,365
Less: Commitments as of Oct 31: 217,412
Remaining supply available for sale: 571,953
-The 2022 California walnut Objective Crop Estimate is 720,000 inshell equivalent tons. This is a decrease of about 10,000 tons (-1%) compared to the 2021 crop.
-Through October 31, total crop receipts were reported at 675,263 inshell tons. This is in line with crop receipts from 2 seasons ago (686,026 as of October 31, 2020). Harvest began late this season and was initially slow due to heat in the growing region. Later in October, the harvest of all varieties picked up pace as weather in the increasing area cooperated.
-If the USDA crop estimate of 720,000 inshell tons is accurate, that would mean that the crop was 94% received as of October 31. This is well above the 5-year average of being 87% received as of October 31. Most growers in the industry are expecting a final receipt figure in the range of 750,000 inshell tons. Due to crop damage during the summer heat wave, we expect a larger than normal amount of the crop to be commercially unusable.
Shipments to North America were strong during October. Season to date inshell shipments are up +5% to USA and +47% to Canada. Season-to-date shelled shipments are up +16% to USA and +42% to Canada.
Shipments to Europe are trending mostly lower through October. Inshell is down -52% to the region, led by declines in shipments to Germany (-90%), Italy (-41%), and Spain (-44%). Shelled shipments are also trending lower, down -36% for the region. Reductions in shipments to Germany (-66%) and Spain (-40%) are partially offset by stronger shipments to the Netherlands (+28%) and the United Kingdom (+95%). Buyers in this region report an amble inventory of 2021 crop California walnuts and 2022 Chilean crop walnuts.
Shipments to the Middle East/Africa are mixed so far this season. Season-to-date shipments of in-shell has been strong to Algeria (+1,950%), Egypt (+56%), Iraq, Lebanon (+1,897%), Morocco (+260%), Pakistan, and U.A.E. (+137%). This has been offset by lower shipments to Turkey (-47%) which has become a trading hub for the surrounding region. Shelled walnut shipments to the region overall are up (+48%) compared to the same
period last season.
Shipments to Asia/Pacific Rim so far this season are falling behind last season’s pace. Inshell shipments are stronger to India (+367%) but offset by lower shipments to Vietnam (-75%). Shelled shipments to the region are down (-10%) compared to last season led by a notable decline in shipments to Japan (-44%).