Almond Shipment Report 13.11.26
Strong Early Demand Masks Regional Imbalances
The latest California Almond Position Report reveals a market that appears stable on the surface but is showing significantly different buying patterns beneath the headline figures. While overall October shipments were broadly unchanged year-on-year, strong demand from India and Pakistan continues to drive export performance, while many other key markets remain noticeably slower.
For wholesale buyers of almonds, nuts, dried fruits, seeds, and ingredients, the key takeaway is that global demand remains concentrated in a handful of regions, and this could create opportunities for strategic purchasing in the months ahead.
India Continues to Dominate Global Demand
India remains the standout market for California almonds.
October shipments to India reached 52.3 million lbs, compared with 28.3 million lbs a year earlier, representing growth of approximately 85%. Year-to-date shipments now stand at almost 163 million lbs, up an impressive 124% from last season.
The significance of India cannot be overstated. Global almond shipments increased by only around 1.4 million lbs year-on-year during October, yet India alone accounted for an additional 24 million lbs of volume.
Without India’s exceptional buying activity, worldwide shipments would have shown a substantial decline.
Pakistan also contributed strongly, importing 11.8 million lbs versus just 2.0 million lbs last October. Combined, India and Pakistan generated around 34 million lbs of additional demand, effectively offsetting weaker buying activity across most other regions.
However, after such aggressive early-season purchasing, many market participants expect demand from India to moderate in the coming months as buyers work through existing coverage.
In-Shell Almond Demand Drives Export Growth
One of the most notable trends continues to be the shift toward in-shell almond exports.
October in-shell shipments reached 64.9 million lbs, compared with 39.7 million lbs last year, an increase of approximately 64%.
What This Means for Wholesale Buyers
For buyers of almonds, nut ingredients, bakery inclusions, snack products and food manufacturing raw materials, current market conditions remain balanced.
While strong early-season exports and potential crop-size reductions offer support to prices, demand outside India and Pakistan has softened considerably. Combined with increased European supply from Spain and lower global commitments versus last year, buyers may find selective purchasing opportunities if demand continues to cool.
However, should crop estimates move closer to the lower end of expectations, market sentiment could tighten quickly. Businesses with significant almond requirements for 2027 should continue monitoring California receipts, export trends, and Indian buying activity as key indicators of future price direction.
