Prunes Market Outlook 02.01.26

The dried prune market underwent significant shifts during the 2025 season, driven primarily by climatic conditions and a sharp rise in demand from China. This combination has tightened global supply and pushed international prices upward.

Chile

Chile anticipates a strong harvest of approximately 70,000mt of prunes, characterised by good fruit quality and improved drying yields. This season, the fresh-to-dried conversion ratio is estimated at 3.2–3.3 kg of fresh plums per 1 kg of dried prunes, a notable improvement from last season’s 3.9–4.0 kg. Key factors shaping the Chilean season include:

• High fruit quality and enhanced drying efficiency
• China is maintaining its position as the leading buyer of both fresh and dried Chilean plums
• Reduced availability of processed fruit from Argentina, increasing Chile’s relative importance

Argentina

Argentina’s prune supply has declined sharply in recent years due to reduced planted area and frequent adverse weather events—frost, Zonda winds, and hail—particularly in Mendoza, the main producing region.

Official and industry sources reported 38,000 mt of production in 2023/2024. Initial projections for 2024/2025 were around 32,000 tons, but severe frost, wind, and hail cut actual output to approximately 15,000 mt. Structural orchard damage suggests that 2026 production may remain at similarly low levels unless there is a significant recovery in planted area or exceptionally favourable weather conditions.