Turkish Hazelnut Market: What the Blossom Count Really Means
Turkish hazelnut exports have fallen almonst 50% year-on-year, yet market sentiment across Europe, Asia, and North America remains unexpectedly steady. Now, the 2026 Türkiye Blossom Count is indicating a potential 36% increase in supply, raising questions worldwide about what the upcoming harvest truly holds.
2026 Production Estimate: 829,239 MT
The hazelnut industry has seen this pattern before. Last season, Türkiye’s February Blossom Count projected 768,715 MT, later revised to 609,384 MT at the INC Congress. But late frosts in March-April and a severe drought through spring and summer pushed real yields far below even those reduced expectations.
In the Turkish hazelnut sector, early estimates and final harvests can diverge significantly, especially under a volatile climate.
Why the Market Isn’t Convinced
With climate-driven risks rising across the Black Sea region, buyers and processors are approaching early forecasts cautiously. The blossom count is a valuable indicator, but it’s only a starting point, not a guaranteed outlook for the 2026 harvest.
The current season snapshot is as follows:
- Exports: 96,729 MT vs. 192,359 MT during the same period last year
- Global Demand: subdued across major consumer markets, including Europe and East Asia
- Industry Shipments: ongoing, but broader purchasing remains weak
Despite the sharp decline in export volume and a potentially large 2026 crop, overall market sentiment has stayed calm. Still, with so much uncertainty surrounding weather patterns, yield reliability, and global demand, the weeks leading up to the 2026 INC Congress in Hong Kong will be crucial for market direction.
